Black swan
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| The '''Black Swan''', ''Cygnus atratus'' is a large [[swan]] which breeds mainly in the southeast and southwest regions of [[Australia]]. | The '''Black Swan''', ''Cygnus atratus'' is a large [[swan]] which breeds mainly in the southeast and southwest regions of [[Australia]]. | ||
| - | ===The Black Swan and induction=== | + | ==The Black Swan and induction== |
| - | One solution to this problem is to rely on the notion of [[Inductive reasoning|induction]]. Inductive reasoning maintains that if a situation holds in all ''observed'' cases, then the situation holds in ''all'' cases. So, after completing a series of experiments that support the Third Law, one is justified in maintaining that the Law holds in all cases. | + | See [[Inductive reasoning|induction]]. No matter how many times 17th century biologists observed white [[swan]]s, and in how many different locations, there is no deductive path that can lead them to the conclusion that all swans are white. This is just as well, since, as it turned out, that conclusion would have been wrong. {{GFDL}} |
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| - | Explaining why induction commonly works has been somewhat problematic. One cannot use [[Deductive reasoning|deduction]], the usual process of moving logically from premise to conclusion, because there is simply no [[syllogism]] that will allow such a move. No matter how many times 17th century biologists observed white [[swan]]s, and in how many different locations, there is no deductive path that can lead them to the conclusion that all swans are white. This is just as well, since, as it turned out, that conclusion would have been wrong. Similarly, it is at least possible that an observation will be made tomorrow that shows an occasion in which an action is not accompanied by a reaction; the same is true of any scientific law. | + | |
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| - | One answer has been to conceive of a different form of rational argument, one that does not rely on deduction. Deduction allows one to formulate a specific truth from a general truth: all [[crow]]s are black; this is a crow; therefore this is black. Induction somehow allows one to formulate a general truth from some series of specific observations: this is a crow and it is black; that is a crow and it is black; therefore all crows are black. | + | |
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| - | The [[problem of induction]] is one of considerable debate and importance in the philosophy of science: is induction indeed justified, and if so, how? | + | |
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The Black Swan, Cygnus atratus is a large swan which breeds mainly in the southeast and southwest regions of Australia.
The Black Swan and induction
See induction. No matter how many times 17th century biologists observed white swans, and in how many different locations, there is no deductive path that can lead them to the conclusion that all swans are white. This is just as well, since, as it turned out, that conclusion would have been wrong.
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