Optimism bias
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Optimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events. Along with the illusion of control and illusory superiority, it is one of the positive illusions to which people are generally susceptible. Excessive optimism can result in cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and delays when plans are implemented or expensive projects are built. More generally, they are related to the initiation of military conflicts and the creation of economic bubbles.
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See also
- List of cognitive biases
- Pessimism bias
- Reference class forecasting
- Risk management
- Rosy retrospection
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