Saeculum

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Rhombicuboctahedron by Leonardo da Vinci

A saeculum is a length of time roughly equal to the potential lifetime of a person or the equivalent of the complete renewal of a human population. The term was first used by the Etruscans. Originally it meant the period of time from the moment that something happened (for example the founding of a city) until the point in time that all people who had lived at the first moment had died. At that point a new saeculum would start. According to legend, the gods had allotted a certain number of saecula to every people or civilization; the Etruscans themselves, for example, had been given ten saecula.

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+A '''saeculum''' is a length of time roughly equal to the potential lifetime of a person or the equivalent of the complete renewal of a human population. The term was first used by the [[Etruscan civilization|Etruscans]]. Originally it meant the period of time from the moment that something happened (for example the founding of a city) until the point in time that all people who had lived at the first moment had died. At that point a new saeculum would start. According to [[legend]], the gods had allotted a certain number of saecula to every people or civilization; the Etruscans themselves, for example, had been given ten saecula.
-'''Social cycle theories''' are among the earliest [[social theories]] in [[sociology]]. Unlike the theory of [[social evolutionism]], which views the [[evolution of society]] and [[human history]] as progressing in some new, unique direction(s), sociological cycle theory argues that events and stages of society and history are generally repeating themselves in cycles. Such a theory does not necessarily imply that there cannot be any [[social progress]]. In the early theory of [[Sima Qian]] and the more recent theories of long-term ("secular") political-demographic cycles as well as in the [[Law of Social Cycle|Varnic theory]] of [[P.R. Sarkar]] an explicit accounting is made of social progress.
+==See also ==
+*[[Aeon]], comparable Greek concept
-==Historical forerunners==
+*[[Century]]
-Interpretation of [[history]] as repeating cycles of Dark and Golden Ages was a common belief among ancient cultures.
+*[[Generation]]
+*''[[In saecula saeculorum]]''
-The more limited cyclical view of history defined as repeating cycles of events was put forward in the academic world in the 19th century in [[historiosophy]] (a branch of [[historiography]]) and is a concept that falls under the category of [[sociology]]. However, [[Polybius]], [[Ibn Khaldun]] (see [[Asabiyyah]]), and [[Giambattista Vico]] can be seen as precursors of this analysis. The [[Saeculum]] was identified in Roman times. In recent times, P. R. Sarkar in his [[Social cycle theory (Sarkar)|Social Cycle Theory]] has used this idea to elaborate his interpretation of history.
+*[[Social cycle theory]]
+*[[Strauss-Howe generational theory]]
-==19th and 20th century theories==
-Among the prominent historiosophers<!--(?) (removed the question mark from the article, "historiosopher" yields a bunch of results on google, for whatever it's worth. if the term is correct feel free to remove this comment)-->, [[Russia]]n philosopher [[Nikolai Danilewski]] (1822–1885) is important. In ''Rossiia i Evropa'' (1869) he differentiated between various smaller [[civilization]]s (Egyptian, Chinese, Persian, Greek, Roman, German, and Slav, among others). He wrote that each civilization has a life cycle, and by the end of the 19th century the Roman-German civilization was in decline, while the Slav civilization was approaching its [[Golden Age]]. A similar theory was put forward by [[Oswald Spengler]] (1880–1936) who in his ''[[The Decline of the West|Der Untergang des Abendlandes]]'' (1918) also argued that the [[western world|Western civilization]] had entered its final phase of development and its decline was inevitable.
-The first social cycle theory in sociology was created by [[Italy|Italian]] sociologist and economist [[Vilfredo Pareto]] (1848–1923) in his ''Trattato di Sociologia Generale'' (1916). He centered his theory on the concept of an [[elite]] [[social class]], which he divided into cunning 'foxes' and violent 'lions'. In his view of society, the [[power (sociology)|power]] constantly passes from the 'foxes' to the 'lions' and vice versa.
-Sociological cycle theory was also developed by [[Pitirim A. Sorokin]] (1889–1968) in his ''Social and Cultural Dynamics'' (1937, 1943). He classified societies according to their 'cultural mentality', which can be ideational (reality is spiritual), sensate (reality is material), or idealistic (a synthesis of the two). He interpreted the contemporary West as a sensate civilization dedicated to [[technological progress]] and prophesied its fall into decadence and the emergence of a new ideational or idealistic era.
-[[Alexandre Deulofeu]] (1903–1978) developed a mathematical model of social cycles that he claimed fit historical facts. He argued that civilizations and empires go through cycles in his book  ''Mathematics of History'' (in [[Catalan language|Catalan]], published in 1951). He claims that each civilization passes through a minimum of three 1700-year cycles. As part of civilizations, empires have an average lifespan of 550 years. He also stated that by knowing the nature of these cycles, it could be possible to modify the cycles in such a way that change could be peaceful instead of leading to war. Deulofeu believed he had found the origin of [[Romanesque art]], during the 9th century, in an area between [[Empordà]] and [[Roussillon]], which he argued was the cradle of the second cycle of western European civilization.
-==Contemporary theories==
-One of the most important recent findings in the study of the long-term dynamic social processes was the discovery of the political-demographic cycles as a basic feature of the dynamics of complex [[agrarian system]]s.
-The presence of political-demographic cycles in the pre-modern history of [[Europe]] and [[China]], and in [[chiefdom]] level societies worldwide has been known for quite a long time, and already in the 1980s more or less developed [[mathematical models]] of demographic cycles started to be produced (first of all for Chinese "[[dynastic cycle]]s") (Usher 1989). At the moment we have a considerable number of such models (Chu and Lee 1994; Nefedov 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004; S. Malkov, Kovalev, and A. Malkov 2000; S. Malkov and A. Malkov 2000; Malkov and Sergeev 2002, 2004a, 2004b; Malkov et al. 2002; Malkov 2002, 2003, 2004; [[Peter Turchin|Turchin]] 2003, 2005a; [[Andrey Korotayev|Korotayev]] et al. 2006).
-Recently the most important contributions to the development of the [[mathematical]] models of long-term ("secular") sociodemographic cycles have been made by Sergey Nefedov, [[Peter Turchin]], [[Andrey Korotayev]], and Sergey Malkov. What is important is that on the basis of their models Nefedov, Turchin and Malkov have managed to demonstrate that sociodemographic cycles were a basic feature of complex agrarian systems (and not a specifically Chinese or European phenomenon).
-The basic logic of these models is as follows:
-* After the population reaches the ceiling of the [[carrying capacity]] of land, its growth rate declines toward near-zero values.
-* The system experiences significant stress with decline in the living standards of the common population, increasing the severity of [[famine]]s, growing rebellions etc.
-* As has been shown by Nefedov, most complex agrarian systems had considerable reserves for stability, however, within 50–150 years these reserves were usually exhausted and the [[system]] experienced a [[demographic]] collapse (a [[Malthusian catastrophe]]), when increasingly severe famines, [[epidemics]], increasing internal [[war]]fare and other disasters led to a considerable decline of [[population]].
-* As a result of this collapse, free resources became available, per capita production and consumption considerably increased, the [[population growth]] resumed and a new sociodemographic cycle started.
-It has become possible to model these dynamics mathematically in a rather effective way. Note that the modern theories of political-demographic cycles do not deny the presence of trend dynamics and attempt at the study of the interaction between cyclical and trend components of historical dynamics.
-Modern social scientists from different fields have introduced cycle theories to predict civilizational collapses in approaches that apply contemporary methods that update the approach of [[Oswald Spengler|Spengler]], such as the work of [[Joseph Tainter]] suggesting a civilizational life-cycle. In more micro-studies that follow the work of [[Malthus]], scholars such as [[David Lempert]] have presented "alpha-helix" models of population, economics, and political response, including violence, in cyclical forms that add aspects of culture change into the model. Lempert has also modeled political violence in Russian society, suggesting that theories attributing violence in Russia to ideologies are less useful than cyclical models of population and economic productivity.
-== See also ==
-* [[Cyclic model]] (cosmology)
-* [[Cyclical theory]] (American history)
-* [[List of cycles]]
-* [[Revolutionary wave]]
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Saeculum

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